Forecast of Changes in the Temperature State of the Building Base in Climate Warming

Changes in the state of permafrost and its degradation as a result of climate warming in Russia and the world have a direct impact on the construction objects located on it. There is a tendency to increase the deformity and accident rate of buildings located in the cryolithozone. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of climate warming on the change in the temperature state of the foundations of buildings and structures. The changes in the temperature state of the base of the building located in Norilsk were modeled when warming the climate with an increase in air temperature over a period of 60 years (2000–2059) according to the regional climate model of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The values of the increase in the seasonal thaw layer (at a higher rate of increase than outside the building contour), the expansion of the thawing bowl, and the increase in the average annual temperature of permafrost soils are obtained The deformations of the base (sediment and the relative difference of sediments) caused by the action of the own weight of the thawing soil are determined. The conclusion is made about the violation of the operational suitability of existing buildings by the end of the simulated time period. It is proved that the warming of the climate in Norilsk is a significant factor in the occurrence of accidents, which must be taken into account when calculating the grounds for the entire period of construction and operation of facilities.

V.A. ILYICHEV¹, RAACS Academic, Doctor of Sciences (Engineering) (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.);
N.S. NIKIFOROVA², Doctor of Sciences (Engineering) (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.);
A.V. KONNOV³, Candidate of Sciences (Engineering) (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

¹ Russian Academy of Architecture and Construction Sciences (19, New Arbat Street, Moscow, 127025, Russian Federation)
² National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (26, Yaroslavskoe Highway, Moscow, 129337, Russian Federation)
³ Scientific-Research Institute of Building Physics of the Russian Academy of Architecture and Construction Sciences (NIISF RAACS) (21, Lokomotivny Driveway, Moscow, 127238, Russian Federation)

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