Methodological Approach to Assessing the Significance of Factors when Forecasting the Development of Economic Systems (on the Example of the Housing Market)

The problem of assessing the degree of significance of factors within the framework of the task of forecasting the development of economic systems at various levels is considered. The recommended methodological approach involves a combination of qualimetric, analytical and heuristic methods. The calculation algorithm is based on the method of expert assessments and includes two main stages: determining the significance of the groups of factors obtained as a result of systematization that form the factor space of the problem being solved; assessing the significance of factors within the boundaries of each group. The main criterion for the significance of a factor is the overall weighting coefficient, calculated as the product of the weighting coefficient of the factor itself and the group of factors into which it entered. The proposed approach makes it possible to rank all the factors that have compiled the list without focusing on their nature and belonging to a certain group. It is shown that for the task of forecasting the dynamics of the development of the regional housing market, the most significant factors are the housing affordability for the population and the potential of the production base of construction. The discussed methodological approach can be applied to solve various research problems and for various economic systems. The main drawback is a high degree of subjectivity due to the use of the method of expert assessments.

I.I. AKULOVA, Doctor of Sciences (Ecomony) (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.),
K.I. GONCHAROV, Postgraduate Student (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)
K.V. KHABAROV, Postgraduate Student (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

Voronezh State Technical University (84, 20-letiya Oktyabrya Street, 394006, Voronezh, Russian Federation)

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